The intercontinental race for Brazilian rare earths.

The global dispute over access to and control of critical minerals and rare earths has become one of the central pillars of national security and technological leadership in the 21st century. In this context, countries with significant reserves – such as Brazil – occupy a strategic position in the geopolitical competition between the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union. The growing centrality of these resources stems from their cross-cutting application in high-tech, defense, and energy transition sectors, giving them the status of strategic inputs.

From a scientific point of view, rare earths correspond to a set of 17 chemical elements: the 15 lanthanides (from lanthanum to lutetium), plus scandium and yttrium, which often occur in similar mineral associations and have related physical and chemical properties.

In the contemporary economy, these minerals play an indispensable role in the energy transition and technological advancement. Elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium are essential for the manufacture of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets, widely recognized as the most powerful commercially available magnets. These magnets enable the miniaturization of electronic devices and are central components in electric vehicle motors and wind turbine generators. Erbium, in turn, is used to amplify signals in long-distance fiber optic cables, thus supporting the global telecommunications infrastructure, while terbium and europium are crucial for color reproduction on high-definition screens. The absence of these materials would significantly compromise the efficiency, portability, and performance of contemporary technology.

A The image shows samples of different rare earth elements—such as cerium, neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, europium, and lanthanum—in their metallic forms.

Certain specific physical and chemical properties significantly increase the strategic value of rare minerals. Titanium's high resistance to corrosion in marine environments, for example, makes it particularly suitable for the construction of submarines and other naval structures designed to operate in salt water and under high pressure.

The availability of critical minerals is a determining factor in ensuring technological superiority and operational readiness. They play a central role in the development of advanced defense technologies, including lasers, enhanced radiation detection devices, monitors, advanced aeronautical structures, smart bombs, joint attack munitions, and magnets, which can be used in radar, sonar, and missile guidance systems that require magnetic stability in extreme thermal environments. They are strategic and vital inputs for the performance of equipment used for surveillance, navigation, and threat detection, and are considered a top priority for national security interests around the world.

In the current geopolitical scenario, it is clear that the dispute over Brazilian rare earths is related to the military capabilities that their use promotes. The intensification of global conflicts makes it urgent for states to develop attack and defense technologies, and the search for materials that make each country's arsenal superior to others is inevitable in a context of widespread chaos and insecurity. In addition, the dynamics of mutual distrust lead countries to strengthen strategic relationships and alliances among themselves, which allow them a greater degree of security due to the resources that their allies have and their capacity for mutual protection. In this scenario, Brazil emerges as an indispensable element in the recent “arms race” because it has the second largest reserves of the rare minerals in demand, which, among other benefits, enable the evolution of military power and the superiority of advanced technology over other states.

Contemporary geopolitics is strongly influenced by the vulnerability of global chains for these minerals. China occupies a predominant position, holding approximately 40% of reserves and 90% of global refining capacity for these supplies. This concentration gives Beijing significant economic influence, including through export restrictions. In response, the United States and the European Union have adopted strategies aimed at diversifying suppliers, stimulating domestic production, and building strategic stocks, with the goal of mitigating risks associated with external dependence in critical sectors, strengthening partnerships with economies considered politically aligned, and promoting greater autonomy with regard to these resources. In this scenario of increasing strategic “instrumentalization” of natural resources, Brazil emerges as a relevant player and enters the radar of foreign investors and nations, due to its ability to supply rare minerals.

The US interest in investing in the Brazilian mining market for these lands reflects its quest for independence from resources supplied by China, an action justified by the global context of trade wars and the pursuit of technological sovereignty and military improvement. Maintaining a direct link to a competing state would be considered a murky and unstrategic move, especially with regard to obtaining resources that are so crucial for military and economic development. In this sense, through Project Vault—announced by US President Donald Trump and aimed at creating a strategic reserve of rare minerals— the United States provided a US$565 million loan to Serra Verde, Brazil's only rare earth mining company, and this investment gave the US a minority stake in the company and expanded its access to Brazilian lands.

Brazil's agreements with the European Union, in turn, are still in their infancy, despite the interest in cooperation already expressed. The Union's ultimate goal is strategic independence, that is, to make its procurement of rare minerals domestic and develop its own refining industry, and the Brazilian market serves as a tool to reduce dependence on Chinese lands. In this light, the European Union's financial contributions to Brazilian rare minerals are expected to reach US$2.4 billion between 2026 and 2030 and should even be directed towards the development of Brazilian refining infrastructure, which further inserts Brazil into the international geopolitical scenario. Furthermore, the President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, highlighted the central role that agreements on the supply of Brazilian minerals will play in cooperation between Brazil and the European Union: "This [the exploitation of rare earths] is essential for our digital and clean transition. And also for our strategic independence in a world where minerals tend to become an instrument of coercion."

Top left: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping. Center: The Brazilian president greets US President Donald Trump. Right: The Brazilian president appears alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in front of flags representing China, the United States, and the European Union.

The dispute over rare earths between the countries mentioned above marks the beginning of a period of investment in Brazil's mining industry and its market as a whole, given that it was the underdevelopment of infrastructure that prevented the rich reserves from being properly exploited and left them virtually untouched. Furthermore, given its recognized geological potential, the country could become a key player in this sector at the global level.

China has also adopted an assertive, long-term strategy to secure access to Brazilian reserves, giving Brazil a central position in the global geopolitical dispute and expanding its economic bargaining power. China's actions in Brazilian territory can be compared to the strategic logic of the Chinese game of Go, characterized by the gradual occupation of key positions over a time horizon of decades, with a view to consolidating structural advantages in the global mineral supply chain.

In this context, there has been a significant increase in Chinese investment in the country. In 2024, subsidies from Beijing grew by 113%, totaling US$4.18 billion, which positioned Brazil as the third main global destination for Chinese capital. The strategy is also evident in the focus on critical minerals associated with the energy transition and the high-tech industry. Chinese companies have directly acquired mining rights and strategic assets. BYD, for example, acquired lithium-rich plots in the state of Minas Gerais, while MMG incorporated nickel assets previously owned by Anglo American. In addition, Chinese capital has expanded its presence in segments linked to niobium, tantalum, and tin, minerals essential for advanced industrial applications.

Another important part of the strategy is control of logistics infrastructure, a crucial element for the transport and international integration of commodities. Cofco International and China Merchants Port control strategic terminals in the ports of Santos and Paranaguá, respectively, ensuring influence over decisive stages of the export chain. Unlike Western companies, which are often pressured by quarterly results, Chinese state-owned companies operate under centralized planning and long-term strategic guidelines, which allows them to absorb cyclical losses in order to achieve structural goals linked to technological sovereignty.

The international situation also creates a window of opportunity for the reconfiguration of Brazil's productive profile. Instead of limiting itself to the export of raw materials, whose added value is relatively low, the country can advance in the production of separate oxides and permanent rare earth magnets, whose value per kilogram is substantially higher. This structural change would allow Brazil to capture a larger share of mineral income, stimulate technological innovation, and generate skilled jobs.

In this sense, US, European, and Chinese initiatives in the critical minerals sector have catalyzed a response from foreign powers and elevated Brazil to the status of an indispensable strategic partner in the contemporary technological and energy economy. It is worth noting that, in order to cement this position and avoid the reprimarization of the export basket, it is necessary to formulate and implement a National Critical Minerals Policy, geared toward adding value, economic autonomy, and sovereign insertion in global high-tech chains.

In short, interest in investments in rare earth mining and processing projects in Brazil will serve to stimulate the development of Brazilian domestic industry and strengthen its position in the global market. The centrality of rare earth use for the military and technology industries makes international cooperation with Brazil essential and consolidates its geopolitical position in the current scenario. The intense attraction of investments inserts the country into valuable interstate relationships and grants it influence over the terms of the respective agreements, which results in the expansion of its sphere of global power. Written by : Mariana Sofia Rolim Canuto and Maria Clara Gueiros Lavor Fidelis.